A 12-theme grid scored across three time horizons — tactical, cyclical, and secular. Each cell carries a conviction score, a thesis, and a counter-thesis. Vehicles tagged by crowding. The matrices feed tactical and cyclical columns; secular conviction is matrix-independent. Built to surface where opportunity exceeds consensus, not to mirror it.
What this is. A cross-horizon view of where opportunity may exist across major investable themes. Twelve theme rows × three time-horizon columns = up to 36 scored cells. Each cell is independent — a theme can be high-conviction tactically and low-conviction secularly, or vice versa.
Conviction score (0–5). Computed as Thesis Strength + Matrix Support + Valuation Reasonableness − Crowding Penalty. The crowding penalty exists explicitly to keep popular themes from dominating the grid by virtue of being popular. A cell with strong fundamentals but heavy crowding will rarely score above 3.
Bias guards built into the structure. Every populated cell requires a credible counter-thesis — if one cannot be written, the cell drops to a maximum score of 2 ("monitor"). Empty cells are allowed and expected. No populated cell scores higher than the strength of its supporting evidence.
How matrices feed the grid. The tactical column (0–6 months) is most matrix-driven and updates with each weekly briefing. The cyclical column (6–24 months) uses slower-moving matrix-layer composites. The secular column (3–10 years) is largely matrix-independent — it reflects structural theses that should not move on a single AAII reading.
Vehicle crowding. Each vehicle is tagged Crowded / Mainstream / Overlooked. This is a flow-and-attention assessment, not a quality assessment. A high-quality crowded vehicle is still high-quality. Each populated cell shows small colored dots in the top-right corner — one per crowding type present among that cell's vehicles ( crowded · mainstream · overlooked). Click any cell for the full ticker breakdown.
Refresh cadence. Different horizons update on different clocks, matching how fast the underlying signal actually changes. From the date of full population: Tactical is refreshed every 2 months; Tactical + Cyclical together every 4 months; and a full review of all three horizons annually (12 months). Across each rolling 12-month period from full population, that means Tactical is updated 6 times, Cyclical 3 times, and Secular 1 time. The annual review is also the only point at which the macro-context strip and the All view's framing language are re-examined as a whole. This cadence is deliberate — refreshing secular conviction more often than annually invites narrative drift; refreshing tactical less often than bimonthly lets the matrix linkage go stale.
What this page does not do. Not a portfolio allocator. Not a recommendation engine. Not sized — sizing comes from your strategic bands and risk budget, not from this grid. Conviction scores are subjective synthesis, not signals. Crowding tags are directional, not precise. The matrices were built for regime/tilt decisions, not theme allocation — their connection to this grid is partial and explicit, never automatic. This page is a research scaffold for identifying where to focus, not a directive. Re-read with a critical eye, especially when consensus and conviction agree.