Three complementary confluence matrices covering the full market structure — large-cap equities (SPY), small-cap equities (IWM), and Bitcoin. Large and small cap together capture broad risk appetite and the credit cycle, since small caps diverge earliest at cycle turns. Bitcoin adds a cross-asset, non-sovereign signal. Together they give a complete read on where capital is flowing and where risk tolerance stands. Updated weekly.
Cumulative measure of advancing vs. declining S&P 500 components. Reveals whether a move is broad-based or concentrated in mega-caps.
Share of S&P 500 components above their 200-day moving average ($S5TH). Source: Barchart, investing.com.
Dow Industrials ($INDU) vs. Dow Transports ($TRAN) confirmation signal. When DJIA makes new highs, DJT should confirm. Classic ~120-year divergence indicator. Sources: StockCharts, TradingView.
Primary trend anchor. Compares SPY to its 13-week and 26-week levels to gauge whether the medium-term uptrend is intact on both horizons. Added after a composite-vs-price divergence analysis; deliberately slow so it confirms regime rather than chasing weekly noise.
Shiller CAPE (price / 10yr inflation-adj earnings) and Buffett Indicator (market cap / GDP). Sources: multpl.com, gurufocus.com.
CBOE Volatility Index — 30-day implied vol on S&P 500 options. Extreme spikes = panic (contrarian buy); suppressed = complacency.
AAII Bull-Bear spread and CBOE equity put/call ratio — both contrarian indicators. Sources: aaii.com, CBOE.
Equity ETF and mutual fund net flows — tracks where money is actually moving. Sources: ICI weekly, ETF.com.
CFTC COT for S&P 500 futures — large speculator net positioning. Sources: CFTC.gov, Barchart COT.
DIA/SPY ratio tracks defensive-value rotation. Rising ratio = capital rotating from mega-cap growth to Dow blue chips (risk-off / value leadership). Falling ratio = SPY's tech/growth dominance, which at extremes signals crowded concentration. Sources: TradingView DIA/SPY ratio, StockCharts.
2s10s yield spread and HY/IG credit spreads measure macro financial stress. Sources: FRED T10Y2Y, BAMLH0A0HYM2.
Fed balance sheet, M2, Chicago Fed NFCI. War caveat: oil-driven inflation constrains Fed easing. Sources: FRED WALCL, M2SL, NFCI.
Oil price trend (WTI/Brent), energy pass-through, Fed GPR Index, USD flight-to-safety signal. Captures war-driven macro stress. Sources: WTI/Brent spot, GPR Index, DXY.
Values every BTC at the price of its last on-chain transaction. Represents actual USD capital invested — the true cost basis of the network.
Average cost basis for all BTC in circulation (Realized Cap ÷ Supply). Market price below it signals deep capitulation — the most important on-chain support level.
Market Value to Realized Value ratio, standardized as a Z-score. The most reliable cycle extreme detector — identifies when Bitcoin is statistically over or undervalued.
Spent Output Profit Ratio — are coins being moved at a profit (>1) or a loss (<1)? Near 1 after a decline signals seller exhaustion and potential reversal.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss across all holders. Ranges −1 (maximum pain) to +1 (maximum euphoria). Maps directly to market cycle psychology phases.
BTC moving to or from exchanges. The most direct real-time smart-money signal — accumulation (outflows to self-custody) vs. distribution (inflows for sale).
Screener setup taxonomy (EXT / PBK / REV / EXTP and inverses) classified from daily 50/200 EMAs, weekly RSI, and 1W/1M performance — discrete and verifiable, replacing the noisier CDD/VDD weekly pulls.
Long-Term Holder (>155 days) supply and net position change. The most reliable cycle signal — LTH accumulation defines bottoms; LTH distribution defines tops.
Daily miner revenue vs. 365-day average. Low = miner capitulation (historically great buys). High = late-bull excess. Source: Glassnode.
Tracks large entities actively buying on a 0–1 scale (Glassnode). Near 1 = heavy whale accumulation; near 0 = active distribution.
Realized HODL waves — ratio of short-term to long-term holder dominance. High ratio = speculation dominates; low ratio = patient capital in control.
Percentage of Russell 2000 components trading above their 200-day moving average. Divergence from S5TH is itself a signal — small caps often top months before large caps. Source: Barchart $R2TH.
Rolling ratio of IWM to SPY — measures small-cap relative performance vs. large caps. Persistent small-cap underperformance is a classic late-cycle and risk-off signal. Source: TradingView ratio chart.
Russell 2000 forward P/E vs. historical range plus earnings revision breadth (net analyst upgrades vs. downgrades across the index). Net cuts = bearish tilt even at neutral P/E. Sources: FTSE Russell, FactSet.
CBOE Volatility Index. Small caps are more volatile than large caps, so VIX spikes hit IWM harder — extreme readings carry more weight here than in the SPY matrix.
AAII Bull-Bear spread and CBOE equity put/call ratio — both contrarian. Small caps tend to see more extreme sentiment readings at cycle turns. Sources: aaii.com, CBOE.
Net flows into small-cap ETFs and mutual funds (IWM, IJR, VB, VTWO). Tracks institutional and retail positioning specifically in the small-cap category. Sources: ICI small-cap category, ETF.com.
CFTC COT for Russell 2000 mini futures — large speculator net positioning. Extreme short positioning is a powerful contrarian buy signal for small caps given their higher volatility. Source: CFTC.gov.
2s10s yield spread, HY/IG credit spreads, and IWM/TLT ratio. Small caps are highly rate-sensitive — rising rates hurt them disproportionately vs. large caps. IWM/TLT falling = bonds outperforming small caps = risk-off. Sources: FRED T10Y2Y, BAMLH0A0HYM2, TradingView.
Chicago Fed NFCI plus Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending standards. Small caps rely on bank lending far more than large caps — tighter lending standards directly compress small-cap growth and margins. Sources: chicagofed.org, Federal Reserve SLOOS.
Oil price trend (WTI/Brent), energy pass-through, Fed GPR Index, USD flight-to-safety. Small caps have higher domestic revenue exposure — energy cost spikes hit margins harder than large-cap multinationals with global pricing power. Sources: WTI/Brent spot, GPR Index, DXY.